Every week from now until the World Cup I’m going to analyze a group and give my predictions, moving from the least interesting groups to the most interesting, ending with what I consider the Group of Death. This week it’s Group A.

Group A
1	Germany
2	Costa Rica
3	Poland
4	Ecuador

My Prediction
Group Winner: Germany
Runner-Up: Poland

Germany‘s World Cup will all come down to psychology. As tournament hosts, the German public expects nothing less than a spot in the final. Whether this is a realistic expectation or not is debatable, but the truth is this German team isn’t that great. That being said, they still have home advantage every game of the tournament and I can’t think of a better team than Germany to handle to pressure of expectation. This group will be a good warm-up for them and if they put in three solid performances, that could build their confidence and a place in the final isn’t unthinkable. Regardless, they’re winning this group with their typical, methodical, pounding style—because that’s what Germany does in World Cups.

If I drew up a short-list of teams guaranteed to go home in the first round, Costa Rica would be on it. The Ticos qualified for the WC with a modest 5-1-4 record, getting only one win and one draw away from home. If you check your atlas, Germany is away from home. This is the weakest Costa Rican team in years and I expect them to go winless this World Cup. Goal differential might make a difference deciding second place, so both Poland and Ecuador will have incentive to whip up on the Ticos. Can they manage a single draw? I don’t think so.

Ecuador finished third behind Brazil and Argentina from a relatively weak South American group. Still, this team is decent and could sneak out of the group but they need to beat Poland in their opener to make it happen. They should dispatch Costa Rica with little trouble but I’ve said it before and will say it again: playing European teams in Europe is hard. If the World Cup was anywhere but Europe I’d probably give Ecuador the nod. But the World Cup is in Germany and I think that will be the decider.

Poland is the poor man’s Germany. They’re less confident, less methodical, and less pounding. Poland always seems like a team in perpetual transition—they never quite have the right kinds of players to do any serious damage. Germany holds the psychological advantage over Poland so I don’t think the Poles can win that, but the other two games against non-European opponents will basically be home games. Ecuador will be the trickiest game, and I wouldn’t be too surprised if they went through to the second round at 1-2-0—drawing Germany and Ecuador and beating Costa Rica. Although it’s just as likely that they could go 2-0-1, losing only to Germany. Depends on how the ball bounces.

Summary
This is a tough group to call definitively. Germany should go through at 2-1-0 or 3-0-0 and be settled nicely for their second round match. Poland is unremarkable but home field advantage should push them past Ecuador, who still have a shot if Poland doesn’t close them down in midfield. Poland let the US dictate the pace in a friendly earlier this year and were on their heels for the better part of the game. If they try to absorb the pressure from Ecuador, they could find themselves chasing the game late. In short, the match between Ecuador and Poland will likely be the decider. If they draw, it’ll likely come down to goal differential and even that should be close, unless one team really plonks Costa Rica.

Half-way through and the groups are getting decidely more interesting.

Previous weeks: Group D, Group F, Group G
Next week, Group H: Spain, Ukraine, Tunisia, Saudia Arabia