I just have to point out that since my last post, Ars*nal have lost twice with an aggregate score of 0-6, are out of the Carling Cup and, for my money, out of the title race. Loverly. I wouldn’t want to gloat, but I’ve been firmly on the (minority) side saying that their squad still looked too lightweight to contend for major trophies. Their opening day drubbing of Everton looks less impressive now that the Toffees are lingering above the relegation zone, doesn’t it? I will say that they’re only three strapping players (a central defender, a holding midfielder, and an old school striker-type) from being very dangerous, but that’s three players too many at present. And of course they have massive injury problems. Unlucky? Well, if you check the news from this date on 2008, 2007, 2006, 2005, 2004 (you get the picture) it seems to be a recurring theme.
At the pinnacle, Chelski look damn good, don’t they? The team they remind me of most at present? Brazil. Not because they’ve got Rio flair, because they don’t—and neither does Brazil. However, both teams are full of technically gifted, gigantic players. This is why I think why Chelski will win the Premier League. And possibly the Champions League.
/ 
And also why Brazil will win the World Cup. If you had a skills contest for a starting 11, I think Spain and Brazil would be close to dead even, just as they in the current international rankings. However, the Spanish players are small—Xavi and Iniesta are about my height, 5′ 8″ or so. The Brazilians are mostly over 6′ and are built like brick walls, yet can sprint with the best of them. If in all the skill categories the two teams are equal, the bigger one will eventually find a way to win.
The best example of this, in my mind, comes from Euro 2008. Portugal was slightly more technically gifted than Germany, yet Germany won out, and I feel it was due to their size in midfield and defense. The German goal came from Michael Ballack barging into the box, remember? Spain, however, was quite a bit more technically gifted team than Germany, and thus they won out in the end.
This is why I have almost no hope for the US to do anything wonderful in the World Cup this summer. There are too many teams that are more technically gifted and/or are bigger than them. The US is going to draw one seeded team (who will be more technically gifted and/or bigger and stronger), one non-seeded and probably African team (who will likely be bigger and stronger), and then one other team that the US should be able to handle. The problem here is that the US needs to play well and have a good dose of luck just to get out of the group. If they only play at their potential, instead of above it, they’re doomed. In 2002 the US played lights out football and got lucky to get as far as they did by having other results go their way, and encountering Mexico in the second round. Despite playing very well, they were stopped by Germany who were just a little bigger and better in every department and luck did not go their way.
If you think about this, this is how their run in the Confederations Cup went as well. Played fairly well against Italy, had no luck, and lost. Played poorly against Brazil and were well-beaten. Played great against Egypt, got really lucky thanks to other results, and went through to play Spain. Again they played fantastically well, got really lucky (both Torres and Villa were off their games) and made it to the final. Against Brazil they played really well, maybe had a little luck… but Brazil were just better than them in all areas of the pitch. You can only ride your luck so far, and I wouldn’t put money on luck over skill when it comes to World Cup predictions.
The draw is tomorrow. Will I be nerdy enough to watch it live? Yes, probably.
Current Mood: Sure | 