I was positively giddy today watching online as the balls emerged from the pots. The draw is crucial for every team, even the big boys who want a game or two to get their motors running before the knockout stages. Here are my initial thoughts for winners and losers.

Winners
The United States of America – Quite frankly, the only way this could have gotten any better is if they’d been drawn with South Africa as the seeded team. As it is, I think the US should be happy with England as the big name in the group as it means they avoided other much more difficult seeded teams like Brazil and Spain. If anyone is to believe that US Soccer has improved in the last decade or two, they’ve simply got to get out of this group by beating Algeria and Slovenia, two of the weakest teams from Africa and Europe respectively. The US needs to get out of this group, and could even win it. The big question: can they handle this pressure?

Mexico – Just as in 2006, Mexico got a sweet draw. The seeded team in their group is South Africa, although France practically fills that role and that should be an interesting test. Uruguay is a team that Mexico should match up against fairly well so they have to like their chances given France’s dodgy form as of late. The top spot in the group won’t be easy but I think guaranteeing a second-place spot is well within reach. If they advance they’d face a Group B team—Argentina, Nigeria, South Korea, or Greece. Four potentially tricky teams, but it’s not like coming up against a Brazil or Netherlands or Spain.

England – They’ll have to feel that this draw set up nicely for them. They’ll expect to get full points off Algeria and Slovenia but starting against the US is less than ideal since a draw or even (gasp!) a loss would pile the pressure on. Still, they’re clear favorites to win the group and face Germany, Ghana, Australia, or Serbia—none of whom will make England shudder in their boots, although they’ll not be wanting Germany.

Netherlands – You’d have to think they’re a lock for the quarterfinals as they should buzz through the likes of Denmark, Japan, and Cameroon and likewise whoever gets out of Group F, which will likely be Paraguay or Slovakia—and they won’t even have to play that well! However, the Dutch tend not to do well when they’re expected to succeed, so it should be interesting.

Spain, sort of – Spain should cruise through the group stage, with the goalfest potentially coming from the match against Chile. They’ll make Swiss cheese out of Switzerland, and Honduran cheese out of Honduras. What will worry them is that they’re opposite the group of death, meaning they’d face Brazil, the Ivory Coast, or Portugal in the Round of 16. Brazil vs. Spain is the final everyone wants, and the Spanish should be able to take the Ivory Coast or Portugal out, but that doesn’t mean they’ll be looking forward to the challenge. Still, if you want to win the thing, you’ve got to beat good teams so they can’t be too put out about it.

Losers
Portugal and Ivory Coast – Ouch. Portugal should be very worried at the moment since they sputtered through the qualifying campaign and historically don’t get off to strong starts. Brazil and the Ivory Coast are not teams they’ll be wanting to face since Brazil is better in all departments and the Ivory Coast play with pace and power, which spells a lot of trouble for Portugal. The Ivory Coast is probably the best African team so they have to feel hard done by getting in a group with Brazil and Portugal who, if they’re on their game and inspired by Cristiano Ronaldo, can conjure up some magic. Worse yet for the second place team in the group is that they’ll likely have to face Spain.

Argentina – The Albiceleste would have wanted a different kind of opponent than what they got. South Korea is sure to hustle and harry them and likely not be overawed by their pedigree; Greece is a difficult team to score against and Argentina is not exactly scoring at will these days. The way I see it, they’ve got to beat Nigeria handily because I see the games against Korea and Greece being draws. If the ball bounces the right way for them I can see them advancing, but not convincingly.

South Africa – They’re pretty poor so it’s hard to imagine a good draw for them, but France wasn’t who they wanted out of the European pot and Mexico and Uruguay aren’t much better. They probably could have done with a Japan or Slovakia rather than two Latin American teams who tend to hold the ball rather well.

That’s my quick take. Only 188 more days until the World Cup!

Current Mood: Quite Excited |